An analysis of the volatility of precious metals - Free Essay Example

The article on commodities has focused on price co-movements and their roles in conveying information about the macroeconomic. The gold and silver are those precious metals that mainly focused by the existing research. The previous research do not examine precious metals shock and volatility cross effects, therefore there is a main weakness if one considers such applications as hedging. There are three objective of study this article. The board objective of study this article is to analyze the conditional volatility and the correlation dependency and interdependency for the four major precious metal, they are gold, silver, palladium and platinum. Besides that, the second objective is to analyze the volatility feedback causes between the US dollar exchange and the four precious metal. The writer expect that the metal volatility will be higher if the US dollar is weaker. And the third objective is to derive the implications of the approximate results on variances and covariances for set up optimal portfolio designs and hedging strategies. 2.Review of the Literature The research of industrial is more ample on analyze their co-movement and the information transmissions if compare illustrating their volatility and correlation dependency and interdependence. According to McKenzie et al. (2001), that the asymmetric effects are not present and the model did not provide an adequate explanation of the data. Tully and Lucey(2007) agreed that the exchange rate is the main macroeconomic variable that will impact the golds volatility, however few other macroeconomic variable had an impact. Besides that, Batten and Lucey (2007) using intraday (high frequency) and interday data in order to analyze the gold futures contracts volatility that traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. Garman and Klass (1980) have analyze the volatility properties of the future returns by the univariate GARCH model and the alternative nonparametric Garman-Klass volatility range statistic. Furthermore, That palladium, platinum, copper and gold futures have chaotic str uctures is agree by Yang and Brorsen (1993). The volatility in the prices of nine non-oil commodities, such as gold and silver, to volatility in oil prices have compared by Plourde and Watkins (1998). 3. Data Description From January 4, 1999 until November 5, 2007, we investigated the four main precious commodity closing spot prices ,exchange rate of U.S. dollar and the federal funds rate. The COMEX in New York have traded the gold (GOLD), silver (SILV), palladium (PALL), and platinum (PLAT) and their entire price are measured in US dollars per troy ounce. Since the precious metals, specially gold, are susceptible to geopolitical crises. The precious metal are dissimilar with the oil grades, the statistics has show that the precious metals are not belong to one great pool. Based on the coefficient of variation, if compare with all precious metals prices, the gold price has the lowest historical volatility, in contract palladium price has the highest historical volatility because of the palladiums supply is relatively small. The above-ground supply of gold is more than 10% of its annual demand and production. The gold has an monetary component and it is not used oftentimes in exchange market, the refore the volatility of the gold price is low. Besides that, Gold is known to have notoriously extended bear markets, in opposite silver price is more commodity-driven than gold as its monetary element was gradually phased out. The statistics for the metals returns normally follow those for their prices. Palladium return has the highest historical volatility, it is followed by silver , in adverse gold return has the lowest if compare with the four metals. When the market is up, silver is performs better than gold, however when then market is down the silver does worse. In term of historical return means, the precious metal that highest average return is platinum, followed by silver, in contrary gold and palladium have the lowest averages in return. The historical return correlation between palladium and platinum is the highest compare with all precious metals and it is positive, followed by the correlation between returns of gold and silver. In opposite, the lowest correla tion is between gold and palladium and it is positive. There is a distinct strong correlation between gold and platinum. The change in the federal funds rate has a inverse correlation with those precious metals, same as the exchange rate. 4.Methodology We used the VARMA-GARCH model in order to concentrate on interdependence of conditional variance and correlation among the precious metals and the exchange rate. Furthermore, we have using vary types of GARCH models to analyze the hedging strategies for the bullion market. Besides that , we also have used Multivariate Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH model (DCC-MGARCH) in order to use it to inspect on the dynamics of the first model. 5.Empirical Results 5.1. Model I(VATMA-GARCH): The Four Precious Metals This VARMA-GARFCH Model 1 is for focus on the four precious metal in presence of geopolitics. Own shock volatility The different precious metals have vary degree of news sensitivity. The four precious metal have separated into two groups because of the news-oriented result: the gold and palladium are dropped into the high news-sensitivity group, and the silver and platinum have dropped into the low news-sensitivity group. The gold is very sensitive to news, it is because gold is the most concerned metal by the traders and policy makers. In contrast, the platinum has the lowest shock sensitivity, maybe is because it is expensive. The investor who are favor volatility should focus on the first group, and those who are more disfavor volatility should be concentrate in second group. Own volatility dependency The result have reflex that the precious metals are normally more impact by common fundamental factors than by shock. The silver and platinum are placed in the high volatility sensitivity group, in opposite gold and palladium are in the low volatility sensitivity group. The gold is comparatively less sensitive to macroeconomic variable in long run, due to its large supply of above-ground. The silver is more influenced by macroeconomic factors than gold, therefore silver is more commodity-driven then gold. If investors added the gold into the portfolio, it is possible to increase the volatility in short term but not in long term, because of its short run sensitivity to news. In contrast , in long term due to its long run above-ground supply may smoothes the fluctuations. Short-run shock interdependency The cross shock effects among all four precious metals are limited, due to the precious metal are not belong to one great pool. When there is shocks to palladium, the platinum volatility will be cool off, it is maybe because of they both are substitutes in industrial production. If there are a shock to the gold, the gold will impact positively to the silver. Furthermore, gold and silver are also used in jewelry industry, therefore the investment portfolios of gold and silver can be a safe havens. Long-run volatility interdependency The long-run cross shock affects of cross past volatility are significant to all precious metals. Gold metal is the most sensitive to long-run volatility interdependence with respect to other metal. Gold have the strongest cross volatility spillover affect on those on those other metals, it is because of the gold are used in jewelry industry and it is a part of international reserve, in contrast, other metals are used in substantially in industrial uses. The strong interdependence with gold is maybe is due to its vast above-ground supply and the gold is close relationship with the dollar. Besides that, gold are most being concerned by those traders. Silver and platinums past volatilities are offset each others current volatility, that mean they are negatively impact by common fundamental factors. Therefore, silver and platinum may not be included in a portfolio that are purposes to reducing volatility in long run. Geopolitics Those metals are sensitive to the geopolitical events, such as the 2003 Iraq war was slightly elevated the mean returns of both gold and silver as a result of flight to safety, in opposite, platinum and palladium are not show the same flight to safety in the war. Silver was responded positively to this war, while platinum and palladium are responded negatively in the long run. That mean traders of those metals are hedge diverse against volatility caused by geopolitics. Constant condition correlations (CCC) All the CCC between those precious metals return are positive. The highest CCC is between the platinum and palladium, the two metals are also used in the same industries. The second highest CCC is between the gold and silver, and both metals are the most diffusely traded among the precious metals. Besides that, both metals are also used in jewelry. In contrast, the lowest CCC is between the gold and palladium, gold is the mopt traded metal, while palladium are the least traded metal. 5.2. Model II (Expanded VARMA-GARCH): Precious Metals and Exchange Rate The expanded volatility system has included the exchange rate of dollar and the precious metals, exclude palladium. Palladium is excluded is because of three reasons. First, it have a very small annual production if compare to gold and silver. Second, it is not widely traded in the world. Lastly, it is because the VARMA-GARCH did not converge when palladium was added to other three metals. Gold is a metal that highly sensi tive monetary policy and the change in the exchange rate. The gold and the platinum are the highest in this cross exchange rate volatility, that mean that there are economic fundamental factors are related to the exchange rate volatility that intensify the volatility of precious metals. Gold has the strongest cross reversal impact, while silver and platinum have lower but also similar effect. Besides that, golds past volatility have intensify the exchange rate volatility. The gold and US dollar are integral part of international foreign reserve of central bank, gold is also first safe haven for US dollar. Those monetary policy makers are think about the gold is a harbinger of inflation. The 2003 Iraq war have impact on the both metal returns and volatility significantly. The silvers average return is the most affected, while the platinum return is impacted the least. Besides that, the war have increase the volatility of the three precious metals as well as US dollar volatility. T he gold volatility is affected most, while the platinum is the least. FRR as a monetary policy variable in the system decrease the metal volatility, it is because of the metal-to-metal volatility are modified by the metal-to-exchange rate volatility despite the strong volatility to the exchange rate from those metals. 5.3. Model III (VARMA-DCC): The Four Precious Metals This Model III is to justify on the dynamics of the Model I. 5.4. Model IV (Expanded VARMA-DCC): Precious Metals and Exchange Rate The restricting the shock and the volatility spillovers are do not impact the own shock effect much, however it have mixed effects on the own volatility spillovers. Besides that, the Model IV is to justify on the dynamics of the Model II. 6. Implications for Portfolio Designs and Hedging Strategies There are example for constructing a optimal portfolio and hedging strategic for precious metals. The first example is follows Kroner and Ng (1998) by a portfolio that can reducing the risk but did not lowering the expected return of the portfolio. For example, there are a suggestion that optimal holding gold by holding portfolio that include gold and silver, the portfolio of gold in one dollar should be 81cents for gold, and 19 cents for silvers. This optimal portfolio weight advise that traders should hold more gold than silver and also other precious metals in order to reduce the risk without reducing the expected return, because the CCC of the gold and silver are the second highest. Besides that, they also suggest that investors should hold more platinum than silver ,should be 40% for platinum and 60% for silver in their portfolio. It is because these two metals are not highly correlated. Furthermore, when come to platinum and palladium, the optimal portfolio should be 83% for platinum and 17% for palladium in favor of the exotic metal over the dull one, it is because platinum and palladium are the highest correlation among four precious metals. Besides that, in purpose of set a optimal portfolio, we also can follow example that given by Kroner and Sultan (1993) about risk minimizing hedge ratios and put it for our precious metals. In purpose of minimize the risk, a long position of one dollar is taken in a precious metal should be also hedged by a short position in another precious. According the research, the values of hedge ratio for those precious metals are lower than those for stock market. By using this strategy, one dollar buy in gold should be shorted by about 19 cents of silver. This result have show that it is more effective to hedge long gold positions by shorting palladium, it is because gold and palladium are the lowest CCC among all the pairs of precious metals. In contrast, the least effective strategy to hedge is hedging long platinum position and also to short palladium, it is because the CCC between platinum and palladium are the highest if compare with any other pairs of precious metals. That mean results show that hedging is more effective when the long position in a precious metal and hedge with short position in another precious metal that is not closely related to the first one precious metal. Besides that, there are optimal portfolio weight and hedging ratios for the three metals exclude palladium and also exchange rate in presence of monetary policy and geopolitics are given. The portfolio gold/dollar has the highest weight for the gold if compare with the three other precious metals, in adverse the silver/dollar portfolio has the lowest weight. It is because the gold is considered as the safest haven against fluctuations in the dollar, while the silver does not have enough variation benefit, such as gold and platinum. 7. Conclusions

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Uncommon Article Gives You the Facts on Samples of Epic Hero Essay That Only a Few People Know Exist

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Dialectic Essay Writing 9 Important Points to Consider

A dialectic essay is a rare type of the academic assignment – students of many disciplines can hope to go through their entire stay at a college without having to write a single one of them. However, this doesn’t mean that you are completely safe – and if you are given a task to write a dialectical essay, you should be ready to deal with it. It is especially true because the relative rareness of these assignments makes it extremely hard to find useful information about the tips on how to handle the writing process – you cannot hope to find a book titled something like â€Å"Dialectics for Dummies† to help you get through. As for writing services, you also cannot just visit the first one you stumble upon and say, â€Å"Write my dialectic essay† – many agencies don’t write essays of this type. Find a Dialectic Essay Sample to Understand What Is Expected of You A dialectic essay is quite different from everything else you’ve probably written so far. It is somewhat similar to an argumentative essay – you are supposed to choose an issue on which people’s opinions are strongly mixed (for example, abortion rights) and provide an argument in favor of a certain point of view. However, there is one important difference. In an argumentative essay, you stop with providing only an argument. In a dialectic paper, you should give a counter-argument as well, an antithesis of the thesis you’ve been trying to prove and provide sound argumentation in its favor. After that, you should get back to supporting your cause and write a response to this counter-argument, proving that your point of view is right after all. It may be difficult to get this right the first time around, so a sound course of action would be to find an example of a well-written essay in this format and follow its structure as you work. 6 Dialectic Essay Topics to Get You Started Many students find it difficult to choose essay topics for their dialectic writing, either out of perfectionism or simply not believing in their ability to select a truly interesting topic. In fact, you shouldn’t spend too much time thinking before deciding what topic to cover in your dialectic essay – the ability to write about anything is one of the requirements that dialectic essay writing is supposed to meet. Here are some examples of what you can write about: Free Education: Useful Investment or an Unreasonable Strain on Taxpayers? Enlightenment: Positive and Negative Influences on the Development of Human Society; Can a Printed Book and Newspaper Be Ever Completely Replaced by Its Digital Alternative? Are Materialism and Its Cosmological Model Enough to Explain All Aspects of Our Reality? Can English Be Used as a Universal Lingua Franca? Can Reading a Report or Researching a Case Study Compare to the First-Hand Experience? As you can see, ideas from wildly different areas of human knowledge can serve as viable topics for high-quality, literary dialectic essays. You needn’t worry about your topic not being good enough – if there is more than one strongly expressed opinion on it, you can safely use it. What Dialectics Does The main purpose of dialectics is an attempt to resolve a paradox. Here is where you should learn the difference between a paradox and a contradiction. Contradiction consists of two statements that cannot coexist, no matter how much time you spend trying to prove otherwise. For example, a wall cannot be black and white at the same time. A paradox, however, consists of two statements that seem to contradict each other but may be proved to have some middle ground. Schrodinger’s cat, for example, which can be both alive and dead at the same time thanks to the uncertainty principle. In short, this is the job of dialectics – to take seemingly opposing points of view and try to find a compromise between them. This result is not always achieved, but this is certainly where you should start and what you should consider being your goal. The Purpose of a Dialectic Essay By definition, the dialogic nature of a dialectic essay serves to teach you how to view the subject matter from multiple points of view, not just your own. This skill can be quite useful in life, in general, and in specific fields, such as Philosophy and Politics. The ability to predict the reasoning of your opponents can have an outstanding effect on how well you manage to refute their argumentation. In other words, dialectic writing, both formal and informal, is an exemplification of rhetoric, and if you study something related to it, you should learn how to write them. The Structure of a Dialectic Essay Structurally, a dialectic essay is more or less similar to any other research paper you’ve written in the past. It has to start with an introduction where you clarify the topic, try to attract and hold the reader’s attention and introduce your thesis statement – a short rendition (usually no more than one sentence long) of your point of view and take on the topic. However, after that, it is followed not by pieces of evidence supporting a single viewpoint, but by a single section containing the entirety of your argument. Here you refer to the literature you’ve been using to gather information and other types of evidence, articles, websites, videos, and so on. In a sense, this section is a synthesis of all the facts, statistics, and narrative testimonials in support of your viewpoint. The next section is a counter-argument or objection. Here, you introduce additional evidence that refutes your initial argument. Respond to some weak points in the initial argument. Give a reason and a proof why the argument in the first section cannot be accepted as the only viable opinion, demonstrate that there are conflicting views on the subject matter. However, you should make sure you understand the meaning of the method – you shouldn’t disprove the thesis itself. Rather, you should disprove the evidence presented in the first section, or at least show why it is dubious at the very best. In the second section, your essay turns into a kind of argument between two people supporting different points of view. There may be more than one objection – if there are more than two conflicting viewpoints, you may introduce all of them. Again, you may want to study a sample or two before you try to repeat the same at school. The third section is your response. In that way, it is a reflection of the second section – you take the refutation of your theory and address all points presented there one by one. The important thing here is not to repeat the same arguments you made the first time around. Instead, you should introduce new evidence that specifically deals with every objection presented in the second section. In a sense, this section proves that your initial point of view is sound and supportable, that it can hold its own even under the barrage of criticism. All this is followed by a conclusion where you either repeat your original thesis (this time, with extra certainty because you’ve managed to protect it from objections) or present a new thesis, a kind of amalgamation of both points of view you presented throughout your essay. You shouldn’t change your point of view completely, especially to the opposite one. Rather, you should keep your initial thesis but support it with more ideas, view it from more viewpoints, introduce new factors into play. What to Do if You Want to Create a Real Masterpiece Remember Your Audience Depending on the issue you discuss in your paper, your audience is likely to hold stronger or weaker opinions on it. Some issues are traditionally prone to causing violent disagreement; others lead to discussions that are more academic in nature. Whatever the case is, resist the temptation to introduce emotional arguments (or even emotionally colored words and expressions) into your text, because they can set a part of your audience against you too much for you to be able to sway their opinions. Maintain the balance: be persuasive but objective, firm in your beliefs yet ready to accept that somebody else may be holding a different point of view. Be Honest Even if you strongly disagree with an opposing point of view, be honest with yourself and give it a fair hearing. Introduce all the viable counter-arguments to your thesis and don’t omit those you cannot refute persuasively. Anybody reading your essay will see through this trick, and it won’t do your grades any good. The more sound arguments of the opposing side you manage to deal with successfully, the higher the value of your own thesis and your essay in general is, so be as fair to both sides as possible. Objectivity isn’t optional here – you shouldn’t give your opponents an opportunity to accuse you of being overly protective of your thesis. Give Clear and Persuasive Reasons When you compare two points of view, it is not enough to be honest and represent both of them equally. You should also give a definite and clear explanation of why you decide to stick to your thesis or modify it in any way. You cannot just say, â€Å"It is what I have been always thinking, and I am not going to change my opinion no matter what†. You should give a clear reason why you aren’t persuaded by the argumentation of your opposition, or why you accept some of their arguments but cannot agree with the others, or why you believe that the two points of view aren’t all that different in the first place, and all the argument is based on a few inconsequential points. Explain, clarify, make it all obvious to the reader, don’t force him/her to track your thinking patterns. Don’t Forget to Proofread Writing dialectic essays is a difficult job where each sentence should be fine-tuned to support the larger whole. If you move away from your argument at one point, you risk turning your entire text into a mismatched, poorly-organized mess. That is why when proofreading your paper, you should not limit yourself to checking grammar, spelling, and syntax. Check if all the parts of your essay are logically connected and complete. Ask yourself the following questions: Have I addressed all the counter-arguments presented in the objection section? Does all my evidence come from trustworthy sources? Do all my points have sound evidence to back them up? Have I been honest when presenting the opposing opinion? What have I missed? Can anything be added to any section of the essay? If possible, find somebody else to read your paper – somebody who reads it for the first time will be more likely to find inconsistencies and mistakes. Writing dialectic essays may be difficult, but it is certainly a rewarding task – and we hope that this guide will make dealing with them easier in the future!

College Accounting - 18th Edition

College Accounting - 18th EditionThe official college book of the Accredited Financial Planning Association is always a must-read for students preparing for the College Accounting exam. The book contains what anyone looking to improve their score should know and hopefully learn.'College Accounting: 18th Edition' by HINTZ PARRY is a must for anyone studying for the ACCPA's college accounting exam. While this book may not be a book you can actually use, it is more than likely one that you can point out as a reference. There are several important points that many students overlook and these are discussed in the Heintz Parry Working Papers.In the first of the Working Papers, 'Mining A New Benchmark,' we find that if there are no foreign exchange markets included in the college accounting exam, the students are losing out on a valuable skill. Moreover, in the Working Paper we see how well students understand how they should adjust and estimate for market prices. To earn a passing score on the final exam, these students must practice.In the second Working Paper, 'An Explanation of Working Papers,' we examine the implications of turning in an incomplete working paper. Students may consider turning in the wrong Working Paper but in reality it is not impossible. What students have to remember when attempting to turn in a missing working paper is that students need to have both the original and the corrected copy of the Working Paper. Also, they should be prepared for the test administrator to explain their missing paper.In the third Working Paper, 'Financial Planning Index,' we review an important component of the college accounting exam. We learn that students should attempt to complete two to three financial plans each quarter. This portion of the book explains why having multiple financial plans is important and even essential.In the fourth Working Paper, 'College Accounting 2020: Test Preparation,' we see how students can increase their test scores when studying str ategies and techniques. An example is to use calculators to find the right answer to a math problem. It's easier said than done but these are strategies students can work with. They should keep these tips in mind to maximize their chance of success.In the final Working Paper, 'A College Accounting Strategy,' we have the last piece of information on HINTZ PARRY's study guide, which also includes questions. These questions should be relevant to the course and should include strategies for finding a professor who has the best ideas for college accounting. It's important to keep the review going because the first two Working Papers are important but they may not be enough to pass the final exam.HINTZ PARRY's College Accounting: 18th Edition is a great book that every student should read before the exam. The Working Papers provides students with what they need to become better prepared. Whether or not it is useful in a real world setting is yet to be seen but it is certainly a must-read for those who plan to take the exam.

Writing an Effective FSA Writing Essay

Writing an Effective FSA Writing EssayWhen you are preparing a write up for your FSA writing essay you need to make sure that the information is factual. You want to include this information in the essay in order to help the reader understand the case that you are trying to make. Your objective should be to show how you feel about the topic and what your personal opinion is on the topic. However, you do not want to leave out important details.In order to create an effective FSA writing essay you will need to do a little research on the topic. When you are researching, you will want to do this before you even start writing the essay. This will help you write a more thorough article than you would if you only research prior to beginning to write.When you are preparing a write up for your FSA writing essay you need to make sure that the information is factual. You want to include this information in the essay in order to help the reader understand the case that you are trying to make. Y our objective should be to show how you feel about the topic and what your personal opinion is on the topic.Before you begin writing the essay, you will want to research the topic. You will want to read as much as you can about the topic. If possible, you should also read as many articles that you can find about the topic in order to better understand the topic.It is not necessary that you have your study text with you when you begin writing the essay. Many students have problems when they start writing essays with their FSA writing essay. You will want to make sure that you have your study materials with you. Your FSA writing essay will be harder when you do not have your study guide.When you are researching, you will want to do this before you even start writing the essay. This will help you write a more thorough article than you would if you only research prior to beginning to write. Your objective should be to show how you feel about the topic and what your personal opinion is o n the topic.In order to create an effective FSA writing essay you will need to do a little research on the topic. When you are researching, you will want to do this before you even start writing the essay. This will help you write a more thorough article than you would if you only research prior to beginning to write.When you are preparing a write up for your FSA writing essay you need to make sure that the information is factual. You want to include this information in the essay in order to help the reader understand the case that you are trying to make. Your objective should be to show how you feel about the topic and what your personal opinion is on the topic.